April 15, 2019
I happen to love going to the Saratoga Racetrack in August. It is the oldest sporting venue in the country, and the meet attracts some of the country’s best thoroughbreds in a colorful and festive atmosphere that is unlike any other in sports.
And, yes, there’s the gambling thing, too. The problem, of course, is that the only information horse players are provided is the horses’ past performances. What we need is to know what their future performance will be.
And inveterate gamblers are not the only ones left making stabs in the dark about events that have yet to occur.
As it turns out, of the 469 recessions in 194 countries since 1988, only four were predicted by economists at the International Monetary Fund by the spring of the year before the downturn. And private-sector economists weren’t much better: Of the 153 downturns in 63 countries between 1992 and 2014, just five had been anticipated by the preceding April.
No known connection, but a recent poll of Wall Street insiders revealed that fully 70 percent expect President Trump to be re-elected in 2020.