November 5, 2024
This is not, and never will be, a political blog. But as a public service, I thought I’d give my gentle readers some tips on how to watch the returns, and I will do so in as non-partisan a way as possible.
The polls have this race very close. I don’t have as much faith in the polls as much of the media. The day before the 2000 election, the New York Times reported that the polls had Bush leading Gore 46%-41% among likely voters. Gore got 48.4% of the vote; Bush got 47.9%. I’m not sure polls are more reliable now than they were then. In fact we know they’re not: they were off in 2016, and just two years ago, the polls were projecting a “red wave” in the off-year election that never materialized. I’m not sure in which direction they are off, but sez here that the final result will not be as close as the polls suggest, at least with respect to the popular vote.
That said, here are some things you should be looking for.
Early Returns:
New Hampshire and Maine may be bellwethers for how this election shapes up. If Trump wins New Hampshire, it is almost certain that he will win the election. If the networks call New Hampshire for Harris relatively early, that is a possible harbinger of good things for her campaign.
Meanwhile, Maine allots its electoral votes differently than every other state except Nebraska. In Maine (as in Nebraska), the statewide winner gets two electoral votes; the other two are given to the candidate with the most votes in each Congressional district. Trump won one of those electoral votes in 2020. If that vote flips to Harris, that’s a sign that it may be a good night for her.
As the evening progresses:
I have a hard time seeing Harris win unless she carries Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump won them both in 2016; Biden won them both in 2020. We may not get a official reckoning tonight in Pennsylvania, but we will certainly see how her numbers compare with Biden’s from 2020. If she’s ahead of where Biden is in places like Pittsburgh and Erie and Harrisburg, you can probably count on her doing better as well in Philadelphia, where we won’t get results until late tonight or tomorrow or even Thursday.
While the polls have North Carolina in play, the Democrats have only carried that state twice in recent memory (Jimmy Carter in 1976; Barack Obama in 2008). If Harris carries North Carolina, she can lose Wisconsin and still win, but she’ll also need Nevada, where the polls have her slightly behind. At the same time, the last time a Republican carried Nevada was in 2004.
A recent poll had Harris winning Iowa, which may not be as far-fetched as it seems (Obama carried Iowa twice), but I’ll believe it when I see it. If Harris carries Iowa, it could be a very long night for Trump.
Meanwhile, I am operating on the assumption that Trump will carry both Georgia and Arizona, which are both states that Biden carried in 2020. If Harris carries either of them, Trump’s path to 270 electoral votes becomes considerably more challenging.
The Senate:
The Dems will almost certainly lose their majority in the Senate. The Dems currently have a razor-thin 51-49 edge (including four independents who caucus with them), but West Virginia is certain to flip with the retirement of Democrat-turned-Independent Joe Manchin, and Montana’s incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester is likely to be ousted. That leaves the Dems needing to protect every other incumbent AND to flip a GOP-held seat. Their best chance to flip a GOP-held Senate seat may be in Texas, where incumbent Ted Cruz’s leads in the polls have been consistent, but not huge. While it’s unlikely, I wouldn’t be shocked if Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley loses, in part because Missouri has a reproductive rights initiative on the ballot, which may help challenger Lucas Kunze. But Missouri is decidedly red: Bill Clinton is the only Democrat to carry the state since Jimmy Carter in 1976.
While Incumbent Republican Florida Senator Rick Scott has to be considered a strong favorite, there are two ballot initiatives in Florida — one on reproductive rights, one to legalize pot — which may draw people to the polls who may also cast their vote for challenger Debbie Mucarsal-Powell. Don’t count on it, but you never know. Meanwhile, Independent Dan Osborn is surprisingly close to Republican incumbent Deb Fischer, but a win would be more than a little surprise.
The Republicans have a strong chance to tighten their grip on the Senate in Ohio, where the Senate seat is currently held by Sherrod Brown. One suspects that GOP turnout in that state will be enhanced by the presence of J.D. Vance on the ticket.
The House:
Without getting into the weeds too deeply, I think the landscape sets up slightly better for the Democrats than the GOP when it comes to the House races, but we should get an early taste for how things play out nationally in New Hampshire, where both House seats are up for grabs with the retirement of the two Democratic incumbents. If a Republican wins one of those seats, it could be a long night for the Democrats. If the Republican sweep the two, most Democrats should probably pour themselves a stiff drink and tuck themselves into bed.
The Bottom Line:
At bottom, the easiest thing to predict is that control of the Senate will flip to the GOP. The second easiest is to predict that the Democrats will obtain control of the House.
Who will win the Presidential race? Two words: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. If Trump wins either of them, he will likely win the election.
Don’t stay up too late.