You doubtless know that the 3-year-old thoroughbred American Pharoah will attempt to do something that only 11 race horses in history have done: win the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. The last horse to do so, Affirmed, accomplished the task (by a whisker, no less) in 1978. Since then, 13 horses have won the first two legs of the Triple Crown but have been unable to close the deal at Belmont Park. Two horses have since come agonizingly close (Real Quiet’s bid in 1998 fell a nose short and can be viewed here, and then-undefeated Smarty Jones was passed for the only time in his career deep in the stretch, just 50 yards from the finish line, in 2004, as can be seen here).
I have been a huge racing fan since high school, and agree with most commentators that a win by American Pharoah would give the sport a huge boost. On Saturday at 6:50 p.m. when the starting gates open, 90,000 fans at the park and millions of people at home will be rooting for a Triple Crown winner.
It won’t happen.
American Pharoah (that’s how they spell it, folks) is a very good horse in a year that has produced a strong crop of three-year-olds. He is clearly the best of the lot. But he has been lucky, getting a perfect, incident-free trip in the Kentucky Derby and then benefitting enormously from a massive storm that drenched the track moments before the Preakness. Most of the other horses were unable to handle the suddenly sloppy track.
Unlike the horses from racing’s golden age, moreover, modern thoroughbreds are not bred to take the strain of the seven-week gauntlet that is the Triple Crown (three lengthy races on three tracks, in seven weeks, culminating in a 1-1/2 mile marathon, a distance that these horses have never run and will never run again). Since 2006, a total of 14 horses have contested all three legs of the Triple Crown. All of them – including six favorites – lost the Belmont. A favorite hasn’t won the Belmont in 10 years, and only two have won it since 1995.
I have no doubt that another horse will sweep the Triple Crown. It just won’t be American Pharoah.
Wanna make some money? You’d probably be wiser to invest a few ducats on either Materiality or Frosted.
Trust me.